TABLES

1.    All CPP Parameters and Data Sources
2.    National Scale Data
3.    Arable Land Statistics
4.    Subnational Scale Data
5.    Reclassification of Model Output
6.    Summary of Model Data by Administrative Unit
7.    Parameter Values at the National Scale (formally an appendix)
8.    Summary of Assets Data
9.    Descriptive Statistics for All Models
10. Kappa Indices of Agreement
11. Overall Accuracy (Agreement) of CPPM
12. ANOVA Test on Models
13. Correlation Matrices of Models
14. Descriptive Statistics for Model Performance at National Level
15. ANOVA Tests for Every Country
16. Correlation Matrices for Models by Country

1. All CPP Parameters and Data Sources

2. National Scale Parameters

3. Arable Land Statistics

Table 3. Arable Land Statistics (thousands hectares).

Country	2002	2001	2000	1999	1998	1997	Aver	Scale	Weighted-2
Benin	2550	2450	2380	2300	2250	2100	*2338*	3	6
BFA	4348	4198	4050	3900	3750	3600	*3974*	2	4
Mali	4660	4660	4634	4610	4610	4610	*4630*	2	4

4. Subnational Scale Data

5. Reclassification of Model Output

Table 5. Reclassification of Model Output.

Code	Rank	IIASA	SWAC	CPPM
0	Very High	1	200001-250000	200.7-213.0
1	High	2	100001-200000	213.1-221.2
2	Good	3	50001-100000	221.2-230.6
3	Medium	4	40001-50000	230.6-239.8
4	Moderate	5	20001-40000	239.8-248.0
5	Marginal	6	10001-20000	248.0-257.5
6	Very marginal	7	1-10000	257.5-274.7

6. Summary of Model Data by Administrative Unit

Table 6. Summary of Model Data by Administrative Unit.

	CPPM	SWAC	IIASA
Mean	3.226154	4.741538462	3.483077
Standard Error	0.080707	0.09798949	0.086636
Median	3	6	3
Mode	1	7	7
Standard Deviation	2.057627	2.498251611	2.208791
Sample Variance	4.23383	6.241261112	4.878758
Kurtosis	-1.12665	-1.201308437	-0.99117
Skewness	0.116604	-0.589203692	0.436591
Range	7	7	7
Sum	2097	3082	2264
Count	650	650	650
Con. Lev. (95.0%)	0.158478	0.192414703	0.170121

7. Parameter Values at the National Scale

Table 7: Parameter Values at National Scale

Variables	Country	Mali	Burkina Faso	Benin
E1	External Cotton Price	NA	NA	NA
E2	Domestic demand	15	15	15
E3	Risk of public default	6.40	6.80	7.60
E4	Equilibrium budgets and payments	2.90	2.60	2.80
E5	Risk of inconvertibility and devaluation	5.80	5.70	5.90
E6	Banking system health	7.40	7.60	8.40
E7	Producer price	8	0	16
E8	Producer price trend	8	0	16
E9	Producer price variance	8	0	16
E10	Foreign direct investment	4	8	6
P1	Arable land in country	4	4	6
P2	Historic cotton area	NA	NA	NA
P3	Irrigated share of cropland	6	8	8

P4	Irrigation potential	NA	NA	NA
P5	Tractors	2	2	4
P6	Ginnery capacity	8	4	8
P7	Distance to ginnery	NA	NA	NA
P8	Road condition	NA	NA	NA
P9	Fertilizer use intensity	9	9	6
P10	Landlocked	13	6	1
P11	Energy price	9	12	4
P12	Cattle Distribution	NA	NA	NA
P13	Terrestrial Ecoregions	NA	NA	NA
P14	Precipitation	NA	NA	NA
P15	Problem soils	NA	NA	NA
S1	Population density	NA	NA	NA
S2	Distance to city	NA	NA	NA
S3	Agricultural researchers	8	12	8
S4	Human Development Index	20	20	20
S5	Rule of Law Index	12	12	12
S6	Political Stability and Absence of Violence Index	20	20	10
S7	Corruption Index	13	14	13
S8	Agricultural labor intensity	15	10	15

8. Summary of Assets Data

Table 8. Summary of Assets Data.

	PHYSICAL	ECONOMIC	HUMAN
MIN	53.34465	45.7	65
MAX	182.75351	81.69999	98.00083
MEAN	123.15695	60.38413	76.43606
STD RANGE	29.33036 See maps	7.30344 See maps	3.33872 See maps

9. Descriptive Statistics for All Models

Table 9. Descriptive Statistics for All Models.

	CPPM	SWAC	IIASA
Mean	3.22	4.74	3.48
Standard Error	0.08	0.10	0.09
Median	3	6	3
Mode	1	7	7
Standard Deviation	2.06	2.50	2.21
Sample Variance	4.23	6.24	4.88
Kurtosis	-1.13	-1.20	-0.99
Skewness	0.12	-0.59	0.44
Range	7	7	7

10. Kappa Indices of Agreement

Table 10. Kappa Indices of Agreement.

	*Overall Kappa*
IIASA	0.3009
SWAC	0.2683

11. Overall Accuracy (Agreement) of CPPM

Table 11. Overall Accuracy (Agreement) of CPPM.

	Cells	Percentage
CPPM	650	100.00%
IIASA	106	16.31%
SWAC	41	6.31%
TOTAL	34	5.23%

12. ANOVA Test on Models

Table 12. ANOVA Test on Models.

	SS	df	MS	F	P-value	F crit
Between Groups	854.9938	2	427.49	83.52	1.57E-35	3.00
Within Groups	9964.648	1947	5.11795
Total	10819.64	1949

13. Correlation Matrix of Models

Table 12. Correlation Matrix of Models.

	CPPM	SWAC	IIASA
CPPM	1
SWAC	-0.101615515	1
IIASA	0.523453153	0.265872259	1

14. Descriptive Statistics for Model Performance at National Level

Table 14. Descriptive Statistics for Model Performance at National Level.

	MALI			BENIN			BFA
	*CPPM*	*SWAC*	*IIASA*	*CPPM*	*SWAC*	*IIASA*	*CPPM*	*SWAC*	*IIASA*
Mean	4.46	2.74	4.52	4.27	3.90	3.78	1.72	6.06	2.78
ST Error	0.10	0.15	0.16	0.19	0.26	0.25	0.07	0.08	0.10
Median	5	2	4.5	5	3	3	2	7	3
Mode	5	7	7	5	3	7	1	7	3
STD	1.68	2.48	2.57	1.66	2.31	2.23	1.24	1.31	1.67
Variance	2.82	6.17	6.60	2.75	5.36	4.96	1.54	1.72	2.81
Kurtosis	-0.79	-0.72	-1.63	2.30	-1.46	-1.25	-0.75	0.63	0.45
Skewness	-0.30	0.83	-0.26	-1.74	0.33	0.26	0.41	-1.38	0.63
Range	6	7	7	6	6	7	4	4	7
Minimum	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	0
Maximum	7	7	7	6	7	7	4	7	7
Sum	1212	744	1229	329	300	291	518	1824	837
Count	272	272	272	77	77	77	301	301	301
Largest	7	7	7	6	7	7	4	7	7
Smallest	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	0
CL (95.0%)	0.20	0.30	0.31	0.38	0.53	0.51	0.14	0.15	0.19

15. ANOVA Tests for Every Country

Table 15a ANOVA of models in Benin

Source of Variation	SS	df	MS	F	P-value	F crit
Between Groups	10.24242424	2	5.121212121	1.175052931	0.310666	3.035441
Within Groups	993.6883117	228	4.358282069
Total	1003.930736	230

Table 15b ANOVA of Models in Mali

Source of Variation	SS	df	MS	F	P-value	F crit
Between Groups	557.03186	2	278.5159	53.57697952	1.39E-22	3.006798
Within Groups	4226.3199	813	5.198425
Total	4783.3517	815

Table 15c ANOVA of Models in BFA

Source of Variation	SS	df	MS	F	P-value	F crit
Between Groups	3080.361	2	1540.181	762.0423	2.3E-194	3.005726
Within Groups	1819.01	900	2.021122
Total	4899.371	902

16. Correlation Matrices for Models by Country

Table 16. Correlation Matrices for Models by Country

MALI						BENIN						BFA
*Correlation Matrix (R)*					*Correlation Matrix (R)*						*Correlation Matrix (R)*
	CPPM	SWAC	IIASA				CPPM	SWAC	IIASA				CPPM	SWAC	IIASA
CPPM	1.000	0.625	0.660	CPPM			1.000	0.055	0.383	CPPM			1.000	-0.387	0.129
SWAC	0.625	1.000	0.605	SWAC			0.055	1.000	0.123	SWAC			-0.387	1.000	0.269
IIASA	0.660	0.605	1.000	IIASA			0.383	0.123	1.000	IIASA			0.129	0.269	1.000

*t Statistic*						*t Statistic*						*t Statistic*
	CPPM	SWAC	IIASA				CPPM	SWAC	IIASA				CPPM	SWAC	IIASA
CPPM	-	13.171	14.442	CPPM			-	0.481	3.592	CPPM			-	7.262	2.252
SWAC	13.171	-	12.493	SWAC			0.481	-	1.074	SWAC			7.262	-	4.826
IIASA	14.442	12.493	-	IIASA			3.592	1.074	-	IIASA			2.252	4.826	-

*Correlation Significance (P)*						*Correlation Significance (P)*						*Correlation Significance (P)*
	CPPM	SWAC	IIASA				CPPM	SWAC	IIASA				CPPM	SWAC	IIASA
CPPM	-	0.000	0.000	CPPM			-	0.632	0.001	CPPM			-	0.000	0.025
SWAC	0.000	-	0.000	SWAC			0.632	-	0.286	SWAC			0.000	-	0.000
IIASA	0.000	0.000	-	IIASA			0.001	0.286	-	IIASA			0.025	0.000	-